Driven in part by the steady rise in smoking rates, mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer rose more than 50 percent from 1900 to 1950, together accounting for more than three quarters of all deaths by the middle of the century.Ĭardiovascular mortality peaked in 1950 and began to decline rapidly by the mid-1960s, falling roughly by half from 1960 to 1990 (Figure 2). 2 Altogether, the death rate from infectious disease fell by 90 percent from 1900 to 1950, accounting for nearly two thirds of the overall reduction in mortality during that period.Īs deaths from infectious diseases declined in importance, chronic diseases emerged as the leading killers. Following the development of antibiotics in the mid-1930s, the rate of improvement accelerated sharply. This decline was initially driven by urban sanitation measures such as the introduction of water filtration and chlorination systems in major cities, as well increased resistance to infection from better nutrition. Over the first few decades of the 1900s, public health measures, improved nutrition, and new medical technologies dramatically reduced the number of deaths from infectious disease. Rapid urbanization and increasing population density during the preceding decades created ideal conditions for the spread of bacteria, leading to high rates of mortality from tuberculosis, influenza, and waterborne diseases. But the stability of this overall trend masks dramatic changes in the underlying causes of mortality.Īt the start of the twentieth century, infectious diseases were the leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly a third of all deaths. Life expectancy at birth rose by more than 30 years between 19 as the overall death rate fell at a relatively constant rate of about 1 percent per year. The United States experienced an unprecedented decline in mortality during the twentieth century. This more pessimistic outlook for life expectancy results in a significantly more optimistic view of Social Security’s finances.Įpidemiological Drivers of Declining Mortality, 1900-2013 While most forecasters expect mortality to continue declining at roughly the pace observed in recent decades, the Social Security Trustees project a substantial slowdown in the rate of improvement. Consequently, the outlook for mortality is a key input into federal budget projections. Increases in longevity raise both the number of individuals collecting federal retirement benefits and the length of time during which they receive those benefits. Moreover, while gaps in life expectancy between men and women and between racial groups have narrowed in recent decades, differences by educational attainment have grown larger.Īlthough rising life expectancy is clearly beneficial to individuals, it has led to higher costs for federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare. But the largest disparities in life expectancy reflect differences in educational attainment: On average, individuals with a college or advanced degree live more than 10 years longer than those without a high school degree. Women live longer than men, while whites and Hispanics live longer than blacks. Beginning in the 1960s medical advances and changes in people’s behavior turned the tide on these diseases, and mortality improvements since then have been driven primarily by better treatment and disease management.ĭespite the steady decline in overall mortality, differences persist between demographic and socioeconomic groups. As a result, cardiovascular disease and cancer accounted for nearly three quarters of all deaths by 1950. In the early part of the twentieth century, public health measures and improved nutrition led to rapid reductions in mortality caused by infectious diseases. While the overall pace of mortality decline has been fairly steady, its causes have varied over time. 1 As shown in Figure 1, life expectancy at birth rose by more than 30 years over this period, from 47 to 79. By 2013, that rate was roughly one in 140, a cumulative improvement of more than two thirds. In 1900, one in 40 Americans died annually. The United States has enjoyed more than a century of nearly uninterrupted declines in mortality and rising longevity. Mortality in the United States: Past, Present, and Future

Life expectancy in us for black males